Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Geveden To Replace Adam Edelen? & U.S. Senate Race

I will have to put this in the rumor category but a number of sources confirm that they have heard that Charles Geveden will replace Adam Edelen as Chief of Staff for Governor Beshear. Edelen is expected to seek the Democratic Nomination for State Auditor.

Geveden is the Deputy Secretary of Justice and Public Safety and served in the Kentucky House of Representatives for 17 years. I have bounced this off a number of folks and the response is mixed. While no one had anything negative to say about Geveden most agreed that if this move occurs it would be done so in an attempt to strengthen Beshears ties to the Unions and maybe pacify West Kentucky a little.

The reactions I received from people were pretty similar in regard that they thought any efforts by Beshear at this point to appease West Kentucky were "too little, too late". A number of democrats in counties that have little or no union influence thought an appointment with ties to the unions would be counter productive for the democrats in their counties.

UPDATE: A source has informed me that Mike Haydon and possibly someone from Abramson's staff may still be considered.

It would appear to me that Gov. Beshear, Conway and the Party are putting together the traditional general election campaign that empowers unions, liberals, and minorities. A strategy that has spelled doom since 1984. Rand Paul will surely run against Obama and a liberal agenda. The usual "Golden Triangle" strategy has failed time and again but always looks good on paper to the DNC.

Obama garnered a 49, 136 vote margin out of Jefferson and Fayette and ending up losing Kentucky by 296,477 votes. Lunsford had about the same margin of victory out of these two counties but lost by almost 107,000 votes. Here are some statistics of this failed strategy over the last 26 years.


McConnell: 644,990

Huddleston: 639,821


McConnell: 478,034

Sloane: 437,976


McConnell: 724,794

Beshear: 560,012


Bunning: 569,817

Baesler: 563,051


McConnell: 731,679

Weinberg: 339,634


Bunning: 873,507

Mongiardo: 850,855


McConnell: 953,816

Lunsford: 847,005

"Those who don't know history are destined to
repeat it"

Edmund Burke

By my assessment of the last 26 years I have concluded that for the democrats to win they must employ a "must win" strategy in 5 counties which included Barren, Christian, Warren, Hardin and Daviess. Only a moderate to conservative stance on just about every issue will be required. The main themes will have to be agriculture, military, veterans and industry. The margin of error is very slim for the Jack Conway. Conway will have to prove that he is committed to staunchly defending Fort Knox and Fort Campbell as well as Agriculture. I think its important for democrats in Rural Kentucky and these 5 counties to hear that Conway will seek a seat on Agriculture and Defense Committees and Sub Committees.

In the last 26 years in these 7 U.S. Senate races the democrats have only carried 3 of these counties on 4 occasions. Huddleston carried his home county of Hardin by only 465 votes in 1984. In 1990, Harvey Sloane carried Daviess County by 655 votes over McConnell. In 1998, Scotty Baesler carried 2 of 5 by winning in Barren County by 187 votes over Bunning and he also carried Daviess County by 1350 votes.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Interesting. It would also be interesting to hear your thoughts on which 20-30 counties Dems have to win to win the state. i actually think it can be boiled down to about 15 counties (including ones your mentioned) along with Jefferson, Fayette, Boone, Kenton, Greenup, Pike, Floyd, and ...?