Tuesday, October 30, 2007

First District: What I See & Hear

I have been to every county in the "Old First Congressional District" in the past week and I'm able to report the following. It's really quiet with not much activity from either side. Marshall, Muhlenberg and Calloway would appear to have the most campaign signs. Marshall and Muhlenberg appear solid for the Democrats which only makes sense because of the Union influence in those counties. Calloway favors the Republicans in the sign battle. Trigg County has also done a good job with their Democrat Signs.

For the most part their is just not much excitement. Voter turn out is expected to be low in the Pennyrile but much better in the Purchase Area. A low turn out will surely favor the Democrats in West Kentucky. There is no question about it--Beshear and Conway have covered up the radio and TV. Fletcher has been blown out of the water on Cable.I have seen a few more Fletcher signs along Hwy 41 from Webster County to Christian Co. in the last week. Church folks getting organized a little late.

I have spent a great deal of time with the media this week in West Kentucky and everyone seems to be on the same page regarding results. We will call this, umh, lets see, Yes the Conservative Democrat/Western Kentucky Survey. Now that sounds official. The number of polls and surveys has risen to the level of college bowl games. I wonder how many children we could feed and educate with the amount of money spent on polling.

(Disclaimer) With the exception of the cows that were slaughtered by McDonalds to feed me this past week, no animals were harmed while producing this survey.

Beshear Wins: Henderson, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Marshall, McCracken, Webster, Fulton,Ballard, Hickman,Livingston,McClean, Union

Fletcher Wins: Calloway, Butler, Ohio, Crittenden


Leaning Beshear: Christian, Caldwell, Lyon, Simpson, Allen

Leaning Fletcher: Graves, Logan, Todd, Trigg

Don't Know: Because I have not spent anytime in these counties and/or I am too lazy to do the math:

Monroe, Cumberland, Clinton, Metcalfe,Adair, Casey, Russell

Any way you slice the pie it would appear that Beshear will carry the First. What we call the "New Counties) will cut into Beshear's margin a little. With voter turn out hard to predict down here it's difficult to do the math. I am going to go out on a limb here and make a Conservative Prediction that Beshear will carry the First District by 6-8,000 votes. If the counties leaning towards Beshear come through then this number could be higher. Consensus had been that Fletcher would carry McCracken County, but my media sources seem convinced that Beshear will carry McCracken and possibly carry it big. This could also add a few thousand to Beshear's margin in the First, if Beshear was to carry it big, but I am not yet convinced of this.

1 comment:

Jeff Noble said...

Fletcher should win all of those you have mentioned you haven't been in, with the possible exception of Metcalfe, which might lean to Beshear.

Here is my take on the others.

Allen - Fletcher, we disagree

Ballard - Beshear - we agree

Butler - Fletcher, we agree

Caldwell - Fletcher, barely, we disagree

Calloway - Fletcher, we agree

Christian - Beshear, barely, we agree

Crittenden - Fletcher, we agree

Fulton - Beshear. A side note - it was in Fulton (city) in 2006 where I stopped to get beer while touring the area on Fancy Farm weekend that the guy behind the counter, after identyifying himself as a Republican and learning of my being in the John Yarmuth campaign for Congress, made the comment to me that "people around here are getting sick and tired of George Bush and his war and everyone who supports it, including Mrs. Northup. You've got a winner in - what was his name again?" Of course Fulton County went on to vote for Whitfield in that fall's election, although the margin was only 28 votes.

Graves - toss-up, we disagree

Henderson - Beshear - we agree

Hickman - Beshear - we agree

Hopkins - toss-up, we disagree

Livingston - Beshear, we agree

Logan - I'm going out on a limb and calling it a toss-up, but I think it leans Beshear, so we disagree

Lyon - lean Beshear, we agree

Marshall - Beshear, we agree, thank you Judge Miller

McCracken - a toss-up I think, but I think it leans ever so slightly to Beshear, so we agree

McLean - Beshear, barely, we agree

Muhlenberg - Beshear, we agree

Ohio - lean Beshear, we disagree

Simpson - toss-up, we disagree

Todd - Beshear, by less than a %, we disagree

Trigg - Fletcher, we agree

Union - Beshear, we agree

Webster - Beshear, we agree