I'm sorry that I have neglected my blog the last 15 days but life has been busy for me and politics has been slow in Western Kentucky.
I traveled to Frankfort last week and had the opportunity at breakfast of all places to speak with a number of elected officials from West Ky. Lynn Lane, Ballard County Clerk, followed up with me regarding voter turn out in her county. Lynn stated that absentee ballots had picked up and that she was still hopeful for a good turn out in Ballard Co. and the Purchase. I had the chance to speak with Rep. J.R. Gray and Judge Townsend from Webster Co. and everyone agreed that it is pretty quite in West Ky.
I spent most of the day in Christian, Trigg, Hopkins, Webster and Henderson counties and I think that I counted a total of 4 yard signs along the route. In conversation with local radio stations it would appear that only a couple of candidates have purchased air time. I believe this reflects the expected low turn out in the Pennyrile and candidates are going where the vote is.
No one really seems to care about any of the races so I will go ahead and predict a low turn out on the Eastern side of the Lakes. Republicans are either mad or disenchanted and I doubt many will vote. While the numbers won't be great, the Democrats probably have an advantage this November.
Fletcher has cried and cried while failing to deliver a strong message. Consevative Dem's in Western Kentucky want a strong leader not a cry baby and Fletcher has looked weak. Fletcher's latest TV spot is really good but probably too little to late. Rule of thumb in political campaigns is one must run positive while running negative and Fletcher failed to do this. He swung and missed on Casinos and Beshear hit on issues like jobs, education, crime, and agriculture. What Fletcher failed to realize is that the good protestants down here like the lottery, the track and the boats. Everyone likes a winner and Beshears is a sure bet to be in the money while Fletcher is looking like a horse that jumped the track and will be still running in December.
If the Golden Triangle vote is as expected then Beshear should manage a 8-10% victory. Bad part for Democrats is that Beshear has probably peaked and Fletcher will make up some ground in the next two weeks, but it won't be enough. McConnell and Whitfield will provide enough cosmetics to appease the faithful but they are smart enough to know that Democrats put them where they are. They will offer Fletcher up as a sacrifice taking a chance that the Democrats will nominate another liberal for them to swallow up. If the Democrats nominate a moderate to conservative man who is right with God, Guns, Farmers and Veterans then McConnell and Whitfield could both be in trouble. If Hillary is the nominee for President then all bets are off. The Republicans will lock up the First District again for years to come.